⦿ Executive Snapshot

• What: The newsletter discusses Bitcoin's relative undervaluation compared to gold, suggesting a shift in its classification as a monetary asset.
• Who: Dovile Silenskyte (WisdomTree), Joshua de Vos (CoinDesk), Francisco Rodrigues (CoinDesk).
• Why it matters: This shift in perception could influence institutional investment strategies and the broader market dynamics of digital assets.

⦿ Key Developments

• Actual bitcoin/gold ratio stands at 15.6, while the model fair value is 21.1, indicating a 26% undervaluation of Bitcoin relative to gold.
• The model suggests three macro scenarios over the next 12 months: no shock, inflation shock where gold leads initially, and risk-off where gold outperforms.
• Top-tier exchanges now hold 59% of Q1 spot volume, increasing from 40% in October 2025, indicating a consolidation of institutional capital towards verified venues.

⦿ Strategic Context

• Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a competing monetary asset alongside gold, reflecting a broader evolution in the market's perception of digital assets.
• The recent performance of Bitcoin against traditional assets like gold and stocks highlights the growing interest and confidence in cryptocurrencies as viable investment options.

⦿ Strategic Implications

• Immediate consequences include potential shifts in institutional investment strategies favoring Bitcoin as a store of value.
• Over the long term, the evolving narrative around Bitcoin could lead to increased adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial frameworks.

⦿ Risks & Constraints

• Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant risk, with only 16 of 75 benchmarked exchanges holding a full license in the EU despite the MiCA regulation.
• Market failures and systemic vulnerabilities were highlighted during recent exchange disruptions, indicating the need for improved infrastructure and oversight.

⦿ Watchlist / Forward Signals

• The upcoming November 2026 cycle will open for exchange submissions in October, which may reveal shifts in institutional participation and regulatory compliance.
• Monitoring the Bitcoin/gold ratio and macroeconomic indicators will be crucial for assessing future investment strategies and market trends.