Over 200 Crypto Firms Urge Senate Vote on CLARITY Act as Galaxy Cuts Passage Odds to 60%

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

• What: Over 200 crypto firms urge the Senate to vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) as Galaxy Digital lowers the passage probability.
• Who: Key players include Coinbase, Ripple Labs, Andreessen Horowitz, and Galaxy Digital.
• Why it matters: The outcome of the CLARITY Act could significantly influence the regulatory landscape for digital assets in the U.S.

§ 02 Key Developments

• More than 200 crypto companies and lobbying groups sent a letter urging for a Senate vote on the CLARITY Act “without delay.”
• Galaxy Digital’s research downgraded the 2026 passage probability of the CLARITY Act from 75% to 60%.
• The Senate has lost usable floor time due to procedural votes and debates, limiting the chances for the CLARITY Act to be voted on before the August recess.

§ 03 Strategic Context

• The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) is positioned as the most comprehensive digital asset market-structure bill, proposing to split oversight between the SEC and CFTC.
• The legislation's progress is hindered by the absence of consensus on ethics and illicit finance provisions, which are crucial for garnering necessary bipartisan support.

§ 04 Strategic Implications

• Immediate implications include potential delays in regulatory clarity for the crypto market, affecting firms' operational strategies.
• Long-term implications could involve a significant gap in U.S. crypto regulation if the Act does not pass, potentially pushing legislative action to 2030.

§ 05 Risks & Constraints

• The primary risk is the lack of floor time in the Senate, compounded by ongoing debates on unrelated legislation that may delay the vote.
• The necessity for at least nine Democratic crossovers poses a risk, especially with key provisions still unresolved that could alienate potential supporters.

§ 06 Watchlist / Forward Signals

• A credible commitment from Majority Leader Thune for a floor vote in early-to-mid July would be a positive signal for the Act's chances.
• Visible progress on the ethics and illicit finance language could shift passage odds back toward 75% and signal bipartisan support is strengthening.