Visa Says Online Deal Hunting Sustains Consumers’ Discretionary Spending

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

• What: Visa reports that consumers are sustaining discretionary spending through digital deals despite rising prices.
• Who: Visa, Wayne Best (Chief Economist).
• Why it matters: This trend indicates resilience in consumer spending, contributing to a projected global economic growth of 2.4% in 2026.

§ 02 Key Developments

• The share of cards with card-not-present transactions in peripheral cities rose from 31% in 2019 to 56% in 2026.
• Visa forecasts global economic growth of 2.4% in 2026, driven by discretionary spending, online shopping growth, and business investment.
• Businesses are investing at levels not seen since 2010, driven by AI, cleaner energy transition, and secure supply chains.

§ 03 Strategic Context

• The shift towards digital commerce is reshaping consumer behavior, particularly in less urbanized areas, enhancing price competition.
• The current economic climate shows a dichotomy in consumer confidence, with some segments maintaining spending while others exhibit caution.

§ 04 Strategic Implications

• The sustained discretionary spending may lead to a stabilizing effect on inflation and support continued economic growth.
• Long-term, the rise in digital commerce could permanently alter shopping habits and payment methods, impacting retail strategies.

§ 05 Risks & Constraints

• Potential risk of fluctuating consumer confidence could dampen spending in the future, affecting economic forecasts.
• Competition among retailers may intensify as more consumers seek value, potentially squeezing profit margins.

§ 06 Watchlist / Forward Signals

• Monitoring the growth of online shopping in peripheral cities and its impact on local economies will be crucial.
• Future reports on consumer confidence and spending behaviors will signal the health of discretionary spending trends.