Crypto Long & Short: Bitcoin vs. gold: 26% relative undervaluation

⦿ Executive Snapshot

What: The newsletter discusses Bitcoin's relative undervaluation compared to gold, suggesting a shift in its classification as a monetary asset.
Who: Dovile Silenskyte (WisdomTree), Joshua de Vos (CoinDesk), Francisco Rodrigues (CoinDesk).
Why it matters: This shift in perception could influence institutional investment strategies and the broader market dynamics of digital assets.

Actual bitcoin/gold ratio stands at 15.6, while the model fair value is 21.1, indicating a 26% undervaluation of Bitcoin relative to gold.
The model suggests three macro scenarios over the next 12 months: no shock, inflation shock where gold leads initially, and risk-off where gold outperforms.
Top-tier exchanges now hold 59% of Q1 spot volume, increasing from 40% in October 2025, indicating a consolidation of institutional capital towards verified venues.

Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a competing monetary asset alongside gold, reflecting a broader evolution in the market's perception of digital assets.
The recent performance of Bitcoin against traditional assets like gold and stocks highlights the growing interest and confidence in cryptocurrencies as viable investment options.

Immediate consequences include potential shifts in institutional investment strategies favoring Bitcoin as a store of value.
Over the long term, the evolving narrative around Bitcoin could lead to increased adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial frameworks.

Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant risk, with only 16 of 75 benchmarked exchanges holding a full license in the EU despite the MiCA regulation.
Market failures and systemic vulnerabilities were highlighted during recent exchange disruptions, indicating the need for improved infrastructure and oversight.

The upcoming November 2026 cycle will open for exchange submissions in October, which may reveal shifts in institutional participation and regulatory compliance.
Monitoring the Bitcoin/gold ratio and macroeconomic indicators will be crucial for assessing future investment strategies and market trends.