Reuters poll in near unanimous: RBA seen holding at 4.35% on June 16

Economists Forecasting Hold

42 of 45

Number of economists expecting the RBA to hold the cash rate at 4.35% on June 16.

Rate Hikes Since February

75bps

Total basis points the RBA has raised the cash rate since February.

GDP Growth Q1

0.3%

GDP growth rate in Q1, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 4.35% on June 16, 2023, according to a Reuters poll.
Who: 42 of 45 economists surveyed by Reuters.
Why it matters: This decision reflects ongoing concerns about inflation pressures and economic growth, with potential implications for market expectations and AUD valuation.

42 of 45 economists expect the RBA to hold its cash rate at 4.35% on June 16, 2023.
The RBA has raised the cash rate by 75 basis points since February, fully reversing last year's easing.
GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in Q1 from 0.9% prior, while unemployment rose to 4.5% in April, the highest since November 2021.
Headline inflation eased to 4.2% in April from 4.6% in March, remaining above the RBA's 2-3% target band.
Core inflation rose to 3.4% as higher oil prices fed through the economy.

The RBA's decision to pause comes amid rising inflation concerns, particularly driven by geopolitical events in the Middle East, which have impacted energy prices.
The split outlook among economists regarding future rate hikes indicates sensitivity in the markets to inflation data and economic performance.

The immediate implication is a stabilization of the cash rate, which may provide temporary relief to borrowers but could also signal continued inflation risks.
Long-term, the RBA's ability to manage inflation without further hikes may influence investor confidence and market dynamics, particularly in the AUD.

Potential risks include regulatory challenges related to inflation management and the impact of external geopolitical events on domestic economic stability.
Competition from other financial instruments and market sentiment around inflation forecasts may also pose challenges.

Watch for the RBA's forward guidance on inflation risks and economic performance in upcoming meetings.
Future inflation and labor data releases will be critical in determining the likelihood of further rate hikes or extensions of the current hold.

§ 07

What is the expected cash rate for the RBA on June 16, 2023?

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its cash rate at 4.35%.

Who conducted the poll regarding the RBA's cash rate?

The poll was conducted by Reuters, surveying 45 economists.

Why is the RBA's decision to hold the cash rate significant?

It reflects ongoing concerns about inflation pressures and economic growth, which could impact market expectations and the valuation of the AUD.

How has inflation changed recently according to the article?

Headline inflation eased to 4.2% in April from 4.6% in March, but remains above the RBA's target band of 2-3%.