Goldman holds TTF gas forecasts, flags upside risk and delayed LNG recovery

2H26 TTF Forecast

41 EUR/MWh

Goldman Sachs maintained its 2H26 TTF gas price forecast.

2027 TTF Forecast

30 EUR/MWh

Goldman Sachs kept its 2027 TTF gas price forecast unchanged.

LNG Normalization Timeline

End-July

LNG flow normalization is now expected by end-July, a month later than previously estimated.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: Goldman Sachs has maintained its TTF gas forecasts while delaying the LNG normalization timeline by one month.
Who: Goldman Sachs, European natural gas market participants, shipowners, and insurers.
Why it matters: The delay in LNG normalization and potential price spikes have significant implications for European industrial demand, power prices, and inflation.

Goldman Sachs kept its second-half 2026 TTF price forecast at 41 EUR/MWh, marginally down from 42 EUR/MWh.
The 2027 TTF price forecast remains unchanged at 30 EUR/MWh.
LNG flow normalization is now expected by end-July, delayed from end-June.
If the Hormuz blockade continues, TTF prices could exceed 100 EUR/MWh this winter to price out Asian LNG demand.
Goldman forecasts TTF at 19 EUR/MWh in 2028 and 16 EUR/MWh in 2029, with risks skewed to the downside.

The delay in LNG normalization indicates ongoing geopolitical risks and market fragility, affecting supply and pricing dynamics in Europe.
Goldman's bearish long-term forecast reflects expectations of increased LNG supply that may alleviate current market tightness, contrasting with the immediate risks posed by geopolitical tensions.

The immediate consequence of delayed LNG normalization may lead to upward pressure on gas prices, impacting European energy costs and industrial activity.
Long-term, the anticipated influx of LNG supply could stabilize prices, but uncertainty remains due to geopolitical factors and market responsiveness.

Regulatory and geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Hormuz blockade, could exacerbate market volatility and pricing.
Dependence on timely recovery of LNG flow and shipping logistics poses execution challenges for market normalization.

Monitoring the status of the Hormuz blockade will be critical, particularly as winter approaches.
Future developments in LNG supply capacity and geopolitical dynamics will signal the success or failure of current market forecasts.

§ 07

What are Goldman's TTF gas forecasts for 2026 and 2027?

Goldman Sachs forecasts the second-half 2026 TTF price at 41 EUR/MWh and the 2027 price at 30 EUR/MWh.

Why has Goldman delayed the LNG normalization timeline?

Goldman has delayed the LNG normalization timeline by one month due to ongoing geopolitical risks and market fragility.

How could the Hormuz blockade affect TTF prices this winter?

If the Hormuz blockade continues, TTF prices could exceed 100 EUR/MWh this winter, potentially pricing out Asian LNG demand.

What are the long-term implications of increased LNG supply according to Goldman?

Goldman anticipates that increased LNG supply may stabilize prices in the long term, despite immediate risks from geopolitical tensions.