72% of Firms Still See Relief Ahead as Forecasting Confidence Slips

High Uncertainty Firms

27%

Percentage of firms reporting a high level of uncertainty in March.

Payments Leaders Expecting Improvement

72%

Percentage of payments leaders who believe uncertainty will decline over the next 12 months.

Financing Cost of Uncertainty

6.2%

Percentage of revenue reported as the total financing cost for firms facing high uncertainty.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: Business leaders show cautious optimism about future conditions despite ongoing uncertainty.
Who: PYMNTS Intelligence, The 2026 Certainty Project, heads of payments and finance leaders.
Why it matters: The ability to forecast accurately is crucial for shaping business strategies, particularly in uncertain environments.

In March, 27% of firms reported a high level of uncertainty, similar to earlier periods of tariff-related disruption.
Among goods firms, 47% reported high uncertainty, indicating greater exposure compared to services firms.
72% of payments leaders expect uncertainty to improve over the next 12 months, down from 78% in January.

The shift from tariff disruptions to geopolitical stresses highlights the evolving nature of market uncertainties affecting businesses.
Companies are adapting their forecasting models to prepare for continuous disruptions rather than waiting for stability to return.

Immediate implications include tighter controls and shorter planning windows for investments and expansions as confidence cools.
Long-term implications suggest a need for adaptive forecasting models that can handle ongoing volatility in the market.

Regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions pose potential risks that could further complicate forecasting and operational planning.
Companies in the goods sector may face more significant risks due to their direct exposure to supply chain disruptions and inventory issues.

A key signal to watch will be how the anticipated improvements in uncertainty manifest over the next year.
Monitoring the financing costs related to uncertainty, currently at 2.9% of revenue, will indicate how businesses are coping with market volatility.

§ 07

What do business leaders think about future conditions?

Business leaders show cautious optimism about future conditions despite ongoing uncertainty.

Why is accurate forecasting important for businesses?

The ability to forecast accurately is crucial for shaping business strategies, particularly in uncertain environments.

How are companies adapting their forecasting models?

Companies are adapting their forecasting models to prepare for continuous disruptions rather than waiting for stability to return.