AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady above 114.00, bullish trend stays intact above key support

⦿ Executive Snapshot

• What: AUD/JPY maintains its bullish trend, holding steady above 114.00.
• Who: Traders, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Bank of Japan (BoJ), US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping.
• Why it matters: Developments from the upcoming Trump-Xi summit and RBA's monetary policy may influence the AUD/JPY's trajectory amid currency intervention concerns from Japan.

⦿ Key Developments

• AUD/JPY is currently trading around 114.10, maintaining a positive tone above the 100-day EMA.
• The initial resistance level is at 114.85, while initial support is found at 113.75.
• HSBC economists predict that the RBA will stay in a 'wait-and-see' mode, but domestic fiscal support could lead to tightening.

⦿ Strategic Context

• The relationship between the Australian and Japanese economies impacts the AUD/JPY, particularly in light of global monetary policies and the influence of US-China relations.
• The BoJ's long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy has historically weakened the Yen, while recent adjustments could strengthen it, affecting AUD/JPY dynamics.

⦿ Strategic Implications

• The immediate market consequence may involve volatility around the upcoming US-China summit, which could influence the Australian Dollar's strength.
• Long-term implications include the potential for a shift in AUD/JPY trends depending on changes in RBA and BoJ policies, as well as broader geopolitical factors.

⦿ Risks & Constraints

• Regulatory risks include possible currency interventions from Japanese authorities that could limit AUD/JPY upside.
• Competition from other currency pairs may also impact trading volumes and investor interest in AUD/JPY.

⦿ Watchlist / Forward Signals

• The outcome of the Trump-Xi summit could serve as a crucial forward signal for AUD/JPY movement.
• Monitoring RBA announcements and BoJ policy changes will be essential for assessing future trends in the currency pair.