The last ledger: EIA’s Iran report captures a $48bn oil trade on the eve of the war

Iran's Oil Export Revenue 2025

$48 billion

Estimated revenue from crude oil and condensate exports.

Average Daily Exports 2025

1.58 million barrels

Average daily oil exports, the highest since sanctions were reimposed.

Exports to China

99.4%

Percentage of Iran's oil exports destined for China in 2025.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: The US EIA's report on Iran's oil exports captures the final snapshot before conflict disrupted trade.
Who: The report is mandated by the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act, with implications for the US and Iran.
Why it matters: It provides a baseline for the potential restoration of Iran's oil exports amid geopolitical tensions.

EIA estimates Iran's crude oil and condensate export revenues at $48 billion in 2025, nearly unchanged from $49 billion in 2024.
Iran's crude oil exports averaged 1.58 million barrels per day in 2025, the highest since sanctions were reimposed, up from 343,000 b/d in 2020.
99.4% of Iran's oil exports in 2025 were destined for China, with only 9,000 b/d exported to other countries combined.

The SHIP Act, enacted in April 2024, mandates annual reporting on Iran's petroleum trade, aiming to create sanctions exposure for those involved in it.
The report reflects a significant evolution in Iran's oil trade, transitioning from a diversified customer base to near-total reliance on China.

The report indicates immediate market implications as it quantifies a potential return to significant Iranian oil exports, primarily affecting Chinese refineries.
Long-term, it raises questions about the sustainability of sanctions and compliance measures as geopolitical dynamics shift.

Regulatory risks persist, as the enforcement of the SHIP Act may not keep pace with the expanding shadow fleet documented.
Competition from alternative oil suppliers and geopolitical tensions could affect the resumption of Iranian oil flows.

Upcoming negotiations between the US and Iran regarding sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are critical.
The performance and legal status of the shadow fleet and compliance measures will signal the future of Iran's oil trade.

§ 07

What does the EIA report on Iran's oil exports indicate?

The EIA report captures a final snapshot of Iran's oil exports before conflict disrupted trade, estimating revenues at $48 billion in 2025.

Why is the SHIP Act important?

The SHIP Act mandates annual reporting on Iran's petroleum trade to create sanctions exposure for those involved in it.

How much of Iran's oil exports are going to China?

In 2025, 99.4% of Iran's oil exports were destined for China, with only 9,000 barrels per day exported to other countries combined.

When was the SHIP Act enacted?

The SHIP Act was enacted in April 2024.