Global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through Hormuz resumed, but remained 9.4 million bpd behind pre-war levels

Global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through Hormuz resumed, but remained 9.4 million bpd behind pre-war levels - IEA

World Oil Supply Deficit 2026

860K bpd

Total world oil supply is forecasted to be 860,000 bpd lower than demand in 2026.

World Oil Demand Drop 2026

1M bpd

Global oil demand is expected to fall by 1 million bpd in 2026.

Supply Growth Projection 2027

7.5M bpd

Global oil supply is projected to increase by 7.5 million bpd in 2027 if shipping conditions improve.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: The IEA reports a rebound in global oil supply but warns of future deficits.
Who: International Energy Agency (IEA).
Why it matters: The forecast impacts global energy markets and pricing, with significant implications for supply-demand dynamics.

IEA sees total world oil supply 860,000 bpd lower than demand in 2026 (versus 920,000 bpd lower prior).
IEA sees world oil demand falling by 1 million bpd in 2026 (versus 1.1 million bpd prior).
IEA says world oil supply to fall by 3.7 million bpd in 2026 (versus 3.9 million bpd prior).
For 2027, IEA sees supply growth of 7.5 million bpd if Hormuz strait transits improve, demand growth of 2 million bpd.
Global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through Hormuz resumed, but remained 9.4 million bpd behind pre-war levels.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and its stability directly affects oil market forecasts.
Historical conflicts in the Middle East have previously led to significant disruptions in oil supply, influencing global energy prices and economic stability.

Immediate implications include potential volatility in oil prices due to supply-demand mismatches and geopolitical tensions.
Long-term implications could see shifts in energy policy and investment as nations adapt to changing oil supply scenarios.

Potential risk includes renewed hostilities in the Middle East that could disrupt oil transit and exacerbate supply shortages.
Infrastructure dependencies on the Strait of Hormuz pose a significant risk to stable oil supply and demand forecasts.

Watch for changes in shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz and any geopolitical developments that may impact oil transit.
Future IEA reports will signal the success or failure of the 2027 surplus outlook based on ongoing market conditions and geopolitical stability.

§ 07

What recent trend did the IEA report regarding global oil supply?

The IEA reported a rebound in global oil supply, which rose by 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through the Strait of Hormuz resumed.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for oil supply?

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and its stability directly affects oil market forecasts and pricing.

How does the IEA predict oil demand will change by 2026?

The IEA predicts that world oil demand will fall by 1 million bpd in 2026, compared to previous forecasts.

What risks could affect future oil supply according to the IEA?

Potential risks include renewed hostilities in the Middle East that could disrupt oil transit and exacerbate supply shortages.