Visa: AI and digital commerce power global economy growth amid rising costs

Global Economic Growth Projection

2.4%

Projected growth rate of the global economy in 2026.

Online Adoption Increase

31% to 56%

Increase in online shopping adoption in smaller cities since before the pandemic.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: Visa's report indicates that the global economy is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2026, driven by AI and digital commerce despite rising costs.
Who: Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI), Wayne Best (Chief Economist at Visa).
Why it matters: The findings highlight the resilience of consumers and the significant role of digital commerce and business investment in sustaining economic growth amidst inflationary pressures.

The global economy is expected to grow 2.4% in 2026 according to VBEI's 2026 Midyear Global Economic Outlook.
Online adoption in smaller cities has nearly doubled since before the pandemic, rising from about 31% to 56%.
Capital spending by the U.S., EU, and China is increasing as businesses invest in AI, clean energy, and strategic supply chains.

The current investment cycle is the strongest since 2010, signaling a shift towards technological advancement and sustainability.
The adaptation of consumer behavior amidst rising costs demonstrates resilience, allowing for continued economic activity despite inflation.

The rise in digital commerce is likely to lead to sustained price competition, helping to alleviate inflationary pressures in various markets.
Long-term investments in AI and clean energy are expected to bolster economic growth and enhance supply chain resilience.

Rising energy prices may continue to strain household budgets, potentially impacting discretionary spending in the future.
Variability in global investment trends and geopolitical tensions could affect economic stability and growth trajectories.

Monitor the ongoing trends in digital commerce adoption, particularly in smaller markets, as indicators of economic resilience.
Future reports from VBEI regarding consumer spending patterns and investment levels will signal the ongoing health of the global economy.

§ 07

What is the projected growth rate of the global economy by 2026?

The global economy is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2026.

Why is digital commerce important for economic growth?

Digital commerce plays a significant role in sustaining economic growth amidst inflationary pressures.

How has online adoption changed in smaller cities since the pandemic?

Online adoption in smaller cities has nearly doubled, rising from about 31% to 56% since before the pandemic.

Who is responsible for the economic insights reported by Visa?

The insights are provided by Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) and Wayne Best, the Chief Economist at Visa.