Gold: Central bank flows and real yields – Societe Generale

Net Central Bank Purchases

+40t

Total net purchases of gold by central banks year to date.

Projected Gold Purchases in 2026

100–120 tonnes

Estimated additional gold buying by central banks over the remainder of 2026.

UK Gold Exports

61 tonnes

Projected increase in gold export activity aligned with central bank demand.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: Societe Generale analysts evaluate central bank demand for gold, projecting increased purchases.
Who: Societe Generale strategists Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, World Gold Council (WGC).
Why it matters: Insights into central bank behaviors influence gold prices and market strategies.

Year to date, net central bank purchases of gold stand at +40 tonnes, mainly driven by Turkey and Poland.
A forecast indicates an additional buying of 100–120 tonnes in 2026, which is double the volume recorded in the first four months of the year.
Central banks' buying intentions are expected to resume visibly from Q4 2026, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.

Historical data shows that central bank gold purchases are often concentrated and influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly from nations like Turkey and Poland.
The correlation between gold prices and US real yields indicates how macroeconomic conditions affect gold's attractiveness as an asset class.

Immediate market implications include a potential increase in gold prices as central bank demand rises, particularly if real yields decline.
Long-term operational implications suggest that sustained central bank purchases could solidify gold's role as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty.

Potential risks include fluctuating real yields that could deter central banks from increasing gold holdings as anticipated.
Competition from other asset classes may also impact the demand for gold among central banks, particularly if yields on bonds rise.

Monitor central bank purchasing trends and UK gold export data in the coming quarters, especially from Q4 2026 onward.
Upcoming changes in US real yields and economic indicators will signal the potential shift in gold's market stance and price movements.

§ 07

What are the projected central bank purchases of gold for 2026?

Analysts forecast an additional buying of 100–120 tonnes in 2026, which is double the volume recorded in the first four months of the year.

Who are the analysts evaluating central bank demand for gold?

The evaluation is conducted by Societe Generale strategists Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, in collaboration with the World Gold Council.

Why is central bank demand for gold significant?

Insights into central bank behaviors influence gold prices and market strategies, potentially leading to increased gold prices as demand rises.

How might fluctuating real yields affect central bank gold holdings?

Fluctuating real yields could deter central banks from increasing their gold holdings as anticipated, impacting overall demand.