Market outlook for the week of 29th June - 3rd July

Canada GDP m/m Consensus

0.4%

The expected growth rate for Canada's GDP compared to the prior -0.1%.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Expectation

114K

The expected increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls, down from a previous 172K.

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m Consensus

0.3%

The expected monthly change in average hourly earnings, unchanged from the previous month.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: Market outlook for the week of 29th June - 3rd July highlights key economic data releases and central bank discussions.
Who: Key figures include Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, and ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Why it matters: The data and discussions are expected to influence market sentiment and monetary policy expectations in the U.S. and Europe.

The U.K. will release final GDP q/q data and Canada will publish its GDP m/m, with Canada expected to show a 0.4% increase from a prior -0.1%.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to discuss long-term strategy at the ECB Forum, focusing on topics like central bank communication and productivity.
U.S. consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is set at 0.3%, with non-farm payrolls expected to rise by 114K compared to 172K previously.

The economic outlook reflects a stabilization in the U.S. labor market and potential growth in Canada, influenced by sectors like mining, oil, and gas.
Global energy prices and inflation trends are central to current economic discussions, with expected moderation in Eurozone inflation impacting ECB policy.

The upcoming economic data releases could lead to shifts in market expectations regarding central bank policies, especially in the U.S. and Eurozone.
Trends in labor market conditions may influence the Federal Reserve's approach to maintaining a restrictive monetary policy.

Potential risks include revisions to GDP estimates and the impact of geopolitical developments on energy markets.
A weaker growth outlook and inflation dynamics could complicate future monetary policy decisions for the ECB and Fed.

Key upcoming events include U.S. average hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls releases, as well as the ECB's July meeting on interest rates.
The performance of consumer spending and inflation indicators in the coming months will be crucial for assessing economic stability.

§ 07

What key economic data will be released during the week of 29th June - 3rd July?

The U.K. will release final GDP q/q data, and Canada will publish its GDP m/m, expected to show a 0.4% increase.

Who are the key figures involved in the upcoming central bank discussions?

Key figures include Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, and ECB President Christine Lagarde.

How might the economic data releases affect market expectations?

The data releases could lead to shifts in market expectations regarding central bank policies, particularly in the U.S. and Eurozone.

What risks could impact future monetary policy decisions for the ECB and Fed?

Potential risks include revisions to GDP estimates and the impact of geopolitical developments on energy markets.