Pizza Needs a Turnaround. America Needs a Slice.

Quick-Service Pizza Sales Change

-0.3%

Year-over-year change in quick-service pizza sales in 2025.

Average Price of Large Cheese Pizza

$17

Current average price for a large cheese pizza, reflecting a rise over five years.

Labor Cost Increase

20%

Recent rise in labor costs impacting the pizza industry.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: Pizza sales in the U.S. are experiencing a downturn, with a forecasted contraction in revenue amidst rising costs and changing consumer preferences.
Who: Key players include pizza chains, consumers, and market analysts such as Technomic and MMCG Invest.
Why it matters: The decline in pizza sales signifies a broader shift in consumer dining habits and poses challenges for the quick-service restaurant sector, which is projected to grow overall.

In 2025, quick-service pizza sales dipped 0.3% year over year, following a mere 0.6% gain in 2024 and a 2.8% rise in 2023.
The broader restaurant sector is projected to grow to $1.55 trillion in 2026, with only 1.3% real gains after inflation.
Pizza restaurants in the U.S. fell to sixth place among restaurant chains, down from second place in the 1990s.
The average price for a large cheese pizza has risen to nearly $17, up 22% over the past five years.
Rising labor costs have increased by 20%, alongside urban rent hikes and supply chain disruptions inflating ingredient prices.

The pizza industry's decline reflects changing consumer preferences, with traditional pizza consumption facing competition from other food categories, such as chicken chains.
Historically, pizza has been a staple in American cuisine; the current downturn contrasts with its cultural significance and previous market resilience.

Immediate consequences may include a shift in marketing strategies for pizza chains to reclaim market share and adapt to new consumer behaviors.
Long-term operational adaptations may involve diversifying product offerings and enhancing online ordering capabilities to compete with eCommerce giants.

Potential regulatory risks could arise from changing food safety standards or delivery regulations impacting operational models.
Competition from other food sectors and the increasing dominance of eCommerce players like Amazon and Walmart may hinder traditional pizza sales growth.

Upcoming trends to watch include the performance of frozen and ready-to-make pizzas as part of the revenue streams for 2026.
The success of new marketing campaigns to reinvigorate pizza sales and consumer engagement will be critical in determining the industry's recovery.

§ 07

What is causing the decline in pizza sales in the U.S.?

The decline in pizza sales is attributed to rising costs, changing consumer preferences, and increased competition from other food categories.

Who are the key players affected by the downturn in pizza sales?

Key players include pizza chains, consumers, and market analysts such as Technomic and MMCG Invest.

How much has the average price for a large cheese pizza increased?

The average price for a large cheese pizza has risen to nearly $17, which is a 22% increase over the past five years.

What strategies might pizza chains adopt to address the sales decline?

Pizza chains may shift their marketing strategies and diversify product offerings to adapt to new consumer behaviors and reclaim market share.