Blame bitcoin's tumble on rising inflation, not Strategy, 10xResearch argues

Net Redemptions

$5.4B

Net redemptions from U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs since the April CPI report.

Expected CPI Inflation

4.3%

Forecasted annual inflation rate for May, indicating a rise from the previous month's 3.8%.

Stablecoin Net Outflows

$1.7B

Net outflows recorded by stablecoins last week, suggesting capital leaving the crypto market.

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

What: Bitcoin's recent decline attributed to institutional ETF selling rather than corporate strategies.
Who: 10x Research, Markus Thielen, Strategy.
Why it matters: This analysis shifts focus from corporate actions to macroeconomic factors affecting cryptocurrency markets, particularly inflation.

Bitcoin's selloff below $60,000 was primarily driven by institutional selling through spot bitcoin ETFs following April's U.S. inflation data.
U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $5.4 billion in net redemptions since the April CPI report on May 12.
10x Research predicts May CPI inflation data could exceed 4%, impacting future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.

A historical pattern shows that bitcoin's price is closely linked to macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation and interest rates, which influence institutional investment behavior.
The narrative around bitcoin's volatility often centers on corporate actions, but this report emphasizes broader economic factors that may have a more significant impact.

Immediate market implications suggest that continued institutional selling could lead to further price declines for bitcoin if inflation remains high.
Long-term implications include a potential shift in how institutional investors approach bitcoin, focusing more on macroeconomic indicators rather than corporate strategies.

Regulatory risks could arise if inflation leads to significant interest rate hikes, potentially dampening risk appetite for assets like bitcoin.
Competition from alternative investments and changing market dynamics could further pressure bitcoin's price.

Watch for the upcoming CPI report on Wednesday to gauge the market's reaction and bitcoin's potential price movement.
Monitor ETF flows as a critical indicator of institutional sentiment and market direction for bitcoin in the coming weeks.

§ 07

What is causing the recent decline in Bitcoin's price?

Bitcoin's recent decline is primarily attributed to institutional selling through spot bitcoin ETFs following April's U.S. inflation data.

Why does inflation affect Bitcoin's price?

Inflation impacts Bitcoin's price as it influences institutional investment behavior and market dynamics, leading to significant selloffs.

How much have U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs experienced in net redemptions since April?

U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs have experienced approximately $5.4 billion in net redemptions since the April CPI report.