Gold: Indian demand risks under Modi call – Commerzbank

⦿ Executive Snapshot

• What: Indian Prime Minister Modi has urged citizens to refrain from gold purchases for a year to protect foreign exchange reserves.
• Who: Indian jewellery industry, Prime Minister Modi, Commerzbank strategists.
• Why it matters: This appeal could significantly impact gold demand in India, which is crucial for the physical gold market, potentially leading to higher import duties if the appeal fails.

⦿ Key Developments

• India's jewellery demand is facing fresh risks due to Prime Minister Modi's call to avoid gold purchases for at least a year.
• In the first quarter, gold purchases by volume were nearly 20% lower than the previous year, although the value of purchases reached an all-time high due to elevated prices.
• There is a possibility of increased import duties if the government's appeal to refrain from gold purchases is ineffective.

⦿ Strategic Context

• The Indian jewellery industry is a significant player in the global gold market, and its demand trends are closely monitored by market strategists.
• Modi's call comes amid rising oil prices, indicating a broader economic strategy to strengthen the country's foreign exchange reserves.

⦿ Strategic Implications

• Immediate consequences may include a decline in gold sales, impacting market prices and the revenue of jewellery businesses in India.
• Long-term implications could involve structural changes in the gold import policies and consumer behavior regarding gold purchasing in India.

⦿ Risks & Constraints

• Potential regulatory risks include the imposition of higher import duties if the appeal to refrain from purchases does not yield the desired results.
• The jewellery industry may face competition from alternative investments if consumers heed the government's advice and reduce gold purchases.

⦿ Watchlist / Forward Signals

• Key signals to watch include consumer response to Modi's appeal and any announcements regarding changes in import duty policies.
• Future developments in global gold prices and oil prices could also influence Indian demand and market dynamics.