Disciplined AI agents are the disruptor needed to break the exchange churn model

§ 01 Executive Snapshot

• What: Disciplined AI agents are emerging as a disruptive force in the trading industry, challenging the traditional exchange churn model.
• Who: Key players include Anthropic, Circle, MoonPay, and Gemini, among others.
• Why it matters: This shift could create a fairer trading environment for retail customers by aligning incentives between agents and investors, rather than exchanges profiting from frequent trading.

§ 02 Key Developments

• Anthropic has unveiled new AI agents for finance, showcasing the growing interest in agentic trading solutions.
• Circle launched nanopayments, providing a new infrastructure for transactions in agentic finance.
• Gemini introduced agentic trading features, signaling a competitive shift in the financial landscape.
• The U.S. market makers paid over $4.9 billion for order flow in 2025, an increase from about $3.8 billion in 2021.
• In Q1 2026, derivatives volume reached approximately $18.6 trillion, accounting for 70% of global crypto trading.

§ 03 Strategic Context

• The trading industry has traditionally benefited from a model where brokerages profit from customer trades rather than their success, leading to a misalignment of interests.
• Recent regulatory changes, such as the SEC's approval of the elimination of the Pattern Day Trader rule, have further incentivized increased trading activity without regard for long-term investor outcomes.

§ 04 Strategic Implications

• Immediate consequences may include increased competition among exchanges and brokers to adopt AI-driven solutions that prioritize customer portfolio growth.
• Long-term implications involve a potential restructuring of the trading ecosystem where independent agents could dominate, shifting profits away from traditional brokerages.

§ 05 Risks & Constraints

• Potential regulatory challenges could arise as the industry adapts to new models that disrupt established practices, especially with PFOF bans in the EU.
• Competition from existing exchanges and their ability to adapt AI agents to their profit models may hinder the adoption of truly independent agents.

§ 06 Watchlist / Forward Signals

• The EU's PFOF ban taking effect on June 30, 2026, will be a critical milestone to monitor for its impact on trading practices.
• Future developments in AI agent technology and their adoption in trading environments will signal the success or failure of this new approach to trading.